Everything is bigger in Texas — including Republican primaries.
What many in the GOP establishment assumed would be a routine glide path to renomination for Sen. John Cornyn has turned into a full-blown political showdown. With early voting now underway in the Lone Star State, Cornyn finds himself in the fight of his career against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and rising conservative Congressman Wesley Hunt.
After four terms in Washington, Cornyn is seeking a fifth. But instead of cruising to the nomination, he’s polling in the high 20s — neck and neck with Paxton, who currently holds a narrow edge. Hunt trails but remains a factor in a race where no candidate has cracked 50 percent. That reality makes a May 26 runoff increasingly likely after the March 3 primary.
For grassroots conservatives, this isn’t just a Senate race — it’s a referendum on the future direction of the Republican Party.
Paxton has positioned himself as a fighter aligned with President **Donald Trump**’s America First movement, touting his legal battles against the Biden administration and his record challenging federal overreach. Despite surviving impeachment by the Texas House in 2023 — and ultimate acquittal by the state Senate — Paxton insists GOP voters see him as a proven conservative warrior unfairly targeted by political enemies.
Cornyn, by contrast, is running as the steady hand — the experienced legislator who can “reliably win” in November. A memo circulating from the National Republican Senatorial Committee argues that Texas “cannot afford to be a gamble” in a high-stakes midterm cycle. Internal polling cited by establishment operatives claims Cornyn performs better in hypothetical general election matchups than Paxton.
But critics say that argument sounds suspiciously like the same tired playbook national Republicans use whenever grassroots voters demand change.
Cornyn himself has warned that nominating Paxton could risk a Democratic upset — something Texas hasn’t seen in a Senate race since 1994. “We could well experience a massacre,” Cornyn told supporters in Fort Worth, suggesting Democrats would gain “oxygen” if Paxton tops the ticket.
Democrats, for their part, are watching closely. On their side, Reps. **Jasmine Crockett** and **James Talarico** are battling for their party’s nomination. Crockett’s higher profile gives her an edge, though some party insiders see Talarico as more palatable to moderates.
Still, Texas remains a red state — and most analysts believe Republicans will be favored in November regardless of the nominee.
The wildcard? President Trump.
So far, Trump has declined to endorse any of the three Republicans, saying he likes them all. That neutrality is fueling speculation. An endorsement from Trump could dramatically reshape the race, particularly for Cornyn, who has at times had a complicated relationship with the MAGA base. Paxton, meanwhile, has worked diligently to brand himself as a loyal Trump ally.
Senate Majority Leader **John Thune** has reportedly cautioned Trump about the stakes, while even Democrat Sen. **John Fetterman** has publicly questioned why Republicans wouldn’t simply rally behind Cornyn.
But Texas voters don’t appear interested in rubber stamps.
Every day that early voting continues without a Trump endorsement adds another layer of suspense. And for establishment Republicans who assumed this race was settled before it began, the message from Texas grassroots voters is unmistakable:
Not so fast.
