A new round of polling out of Texas is sending a clear message to the Republican establishment: grassroots voters are looking for a fighter—and right now, that fighter appears to be Attorney General Ken Paxton.
According to fresh data, Paxton is leading incumbent Sen. John Cornyn by a decisive margin among likely GOP primary voters, 53% to 37%. It’s a significant gap that underscores a broader shift within the Republican base, where loyalty to the America First agenda continues to outweigh establishment credentials.
The numbers get even more telling when it comes to favorability. Paxton boasts a strong 64% favorable rating among Republican voters, compared to just 31% unfavorable. Cornyn, by contrast, is underwater—45% favorable to 47% unfavorable—a warning sign for any incumbent heading into a high-stakes runoff.
For many conservatives, the contrast couldn’t be clearer. Paxton has built his reputation as a legal bulldog, frequently taking on federal overreach and aligning closely with the policies of Donald Trump. Cornyn, on the other hand, is increasingly viewed by the base as a relic of the pre-Trump GOP—reliable, perhaps, but not exactly inspiring.
That dynamic is now playing out in what has become one of the most closely watched Republican primaries in the country.
Still, the race isn’t without complications. When matched against Democratic challenger James Talarico, both Republicans face a tighter contest than expected—at least on paper. Current polling suggests Cornyn trails Talarico by two points, while Paxton is just one point behind.
But in a state like Texas, where Democrats haven’t won a Senate seat in decades, many Republicans remain confident that either candidate would ultimately prevail in a general election.
The bigger question—and the one looming over the entire race—is whether President Trump will weigh in.
A separate survey indicates that Trump’s endorsement could prove निर्णative. Without it, Paxton appears poised to win outright. With it, Cornyn could regain a narrow edge, as some voters signal they would shift their support to align with the president’s choice.
If Trump backs Paxton, however, the race could effectively be over. Polling shows Paxton’s support jumping to 50% with Trump’s endorsement, compared to 40% for Cornyn—a potentially insurmountable lead.
So far, Trump has kept his cards close to the vest, teasing an eventual endorsement but declining to commit. Earlier this year, he suggested that candidates who fail to secure his backing should consider stepping aside—a statement that added even more intrigue to an already high-stakes contest.
Both campaigns, for their part, have worked to present themselves as aligned with Trump’s vision. Paxton has gone a step further, signaling he would even consider exiting the race under certain conditions tied to key legislative priorities, such as the SAVE Act—a proposal aimed at strengthening election integrity by requiring proof of citizenship for voter registration.
The runoff, scheduled for May 26, now shapes up as a defining battle within the GOP: establishment versus insurgent, legacy versus grassroots, and perhaps most importantly, a test of just how much influence Trump continues to wield over the party he reshaped.
For Texas Republicans, the choice is becoming increasingly stark. And if the latest polling is any indication, the base already knows which direction it’s leaning.
