Texas Republicans appear poised for a political course correction — one that reflects a broader national shift inside the GOP away from old-guard insiders and toward candidates unapologetically aligned with President Donald Trump’s America-first movement.
New polling out of the Lone Star State suggests primary voters are signaling impatience with establishment politics and rewarding fighters instead.
A late-January 2026 survey from the University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs shows Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton leading the Republican Senate primary field with 38% support among likely GOP voters. Incumbent Sen. John Cornyn trails at 31%, while Rep. Wesley Hunt sits at 17%. Only 2% chose another candidate, with 12% still undecided — meaning Paxton holds a clear early advantage as momentum builds heading into March.
Just as telling as the horse-race numbers is how Republican voters actually feel about the candidates. Paxton boasts a commanding 72% favorability rating, with only 22% viewing him negatively. Hunt also performs strongly, earning a 70% favorability score. Cornyn, by contrast, lags behind with 61% favorable and a comparatively high 30% unfavorable rating — a warning sign for a longtime incumbent facing a base that increasingly demands ideological clarity and loyalty to Trump’s agenda.
The poll surveyed 550 likely primary voters in each party and carries a margin of error of 2.53 percentage points. Even accounting for statistical variance, the trend line is unmistakable: Republican voters are gravitating toward candidates they see as fighters, not caretakers of the status quo.
Paxton wasted no time highlighting the results.
“Major independent poll shows me crushing Cornyn in the primary and outperforming him in the general,” he wrote on social media, arguing that GOP voters are ready for new leadership that mirrors Trump’s political realignment.
He also took aim at Cornyn’s campaign spending, suggesting millions have been burned trying to salvage establishment support that may no longer exist. The critique reflects a deeper frustration among grassroots conservatives who believe Washington Republicans too often campaign like outsiders but govern like insiders.
During a recent radio appearance, Paxton accused Cornyn of political opportunism, arguing the senator’s embrace of Trump is a late conversion driven by electoral survival rather than conviction.
“There’s nothing about John Cornyn that’s real right now,” Paxton said, claiming the incumbent has a history of distancing himself from Trump when it was politically convenient.
Hunt has echoed a similar generational message, framing the race as part of a broader transition toward younger leadership aligned with Trump’s long-term vision. In a Newsmax interview, Hunt praised the administration’s youthful cabinet as evidence that the movement is building a future bench, not simply fighting present battles.
Cornyn, for his part, has defended his record by arguing that governing requires substance, not social media theatrics. He insists he can help deliver Trump’s second-term priorities and warns against turning the Senate into what he calls a stage for “performance artists.”
But Texas voters may be signaling that what Washington calls performance, they call accountability.
If the early numbers hold, the primary could become a referendum on the Republican Party’s direction: establishment continuity versus America-first insurgency. And in Texas — a bellwether state for conservative politics — the base appears ready to make its choice loud and clear.
