In what could mark a political earthquake in deep-blue California, a new Emerson College poll shows **Republican commentator Steve Hilton leading the 2026 gubernatorial race** — a stunning sign that the Golden State’s decades-long Democrat stranglehold may finally be cracking.
Hilton, a former Fox News host and one of the most articulate critics of California’s failed progressive leadership, now finds himself **ahead of Democrat Katie Porter**, whose campaign has imploded under the weight of scandal, arrogance, and an embarrassing public meltdown.
According to the poll, Hilton narrowly leads Porter within the 3% margin of error — a remarkable feat in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans nearly two to one. No other Democrat in the race even reaches double digits, while enthusiasm among the party’s base is slipping fast. Worse yet for Democrats, **Governor Gavin Newsom’s approval rating sits at an anemic 48%**, a poor showing for a man not even seeking re-election.
Voter frustration is clear. Californians have endured years of soaring costs, mass homelessness, rampant crime, and sky-high taxes under one-party rule. Even as Newsom pushes forward with a **brazen gerrymandering plan** designed to lock in Democratic dominance, residents are signaling they’ve had enough of the dysfunction, hypocrisy, and elitism that define the state’s political class.
For Hilton, a political outsider with a reputation for speaking plain truths, this is an opening few thought possible. His populist message — restoring order, lowering costs, and holding corrupt leaders accountable — appears to be resonating in a state long written off as hopelessly progressive.
Meanwhile, Katie Porter is fast becoming the face of Democratic self-destruction. Her campaign began unraveling when a **video leaked showing her screaming profanities at a staffer** during a photo shoot. “Get out of my F—KING shot! Stay out of my shot!” she yelled, in a moment that left many questioning her temperament and basic professionalism.
Porter later tried to spin the tirade as a leadership quirk, claiming she merely holds her staff “to a high standard.” But the damage was done — voters saw exactly who she was.
Things only got worse when Porter **blew up during a CBS interview**, angrily snapping at reporter Julie Watts over a mild question about how she planned to win over Trump voters. “How would I need them in order to win, ma’am?” Porter shot back, visibly irritated. “I don’t intend for that to be the case… I don’t want to keep doing this.” The bizarre exchange went viral, fueling doubts about whether the fragile Democrat can handle the pressures of higher office.
Conservative commentators pounced. “California needs a governor who’s tough, disciplined, and willing to solve hard problems — not one who crumbles under simple questions,” said one political analyst. “Steve Hilton represents the kind of common-sense leadership this state hasn’t seen in decades.”
With Porter in freefall and Democrats scrambling for a backup plan, the 2026 California race — once presumed to be a formality — now looks like a genuine toss-up. And for the first time in a generation, **Republicans have a real shot at taking back the Golden State.**
