It’s not every day that CNN delivers bad news for Democrats, but this week, their own political analyst Harry Enten dropped a truth bomb: the Democratic Party is limping toward the 2026 midterms, and Republicans are in prime position to flip seats and strengthen their grip on Congress.
Speaking on July 16, 2025, Enten laid out a sobering reality for Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and his allies. Using fresh polling data, he revealed that Democrats are far behind their historical pace on the generic congressional ballot — a key metric for forecasting midterm outcomes. “Democrats are ahead, but by just two points,” Enten explained. “That’s less than half of where they were at this point in either 2017 or 2005, the year before the midterm election.”
For context, in 2017 Democrats held a seven-point lead in the generic ballot and went on to retake the House in 2018. In 2005, they were up by a similar margin and then scored major gains in 2006. This year? Just a razor-thin edge — and with enthusiasm among Republican voters running high, that advantage could vanish quickly.
Enten didn’t sugarcoat it. “Yes, Donald Trump may be unpopular,” he said, “but Democrats have not come anywhere close to sealing the deal at this particular point.” In fact, he noted that Republicans have *more pickup opportunities* — with a potential net gain of 12 seats in their sights. That means the GOP isn’t just playing defense; it’s on offense across multiple competitive districts.
Even more telling, Enten said the 2026 landscape looks “a lot more like 2024 than it does… either 2018 or 2006.” That should make Democrats nervous. In 2024, Republicans held the House despite media predictions of a “blue wave” that never came.
If history is any guide, the lack of a commanding lead in the generic ballot spells trouble for the party in power — especially when that party is dealing with inflation, border chaos, rising crime, and foreign policy blunders. And with President Biden’s approval ratings still underwater, down-ballot Democrats may face the same voter backlash that pummeled Republicans in 2006 and Democrats in 2010.
Enten even took to X (formerly Twitter) to hammer the point home: “Dems are way behind their 2006 & 2018 pace on the generic ballot at this point in the cycle. Seat-by-seat analysis actually reveals more GOP pickup opportunities than Dems!” Conservatives flooded his post with comments predicting a Republican surge — and mocking the Democrats’ struggles. One user quipped, “Now do CNN’s ratings from 2006, 2018, and now.”
The bottom line? The Democrats’ dream of riding anti-Trump sentiment to another midterm sweep is fading fast. Meanwhile, Republicans smell opportunity — and they’re already positioning themselves to expand their majority.
For all the Beltway pundits writing premature political obituaries for the GOP, Enten’s data is a reality check: Democrats are in trouble, and the Republican comeback train may just be pulling into the station ahead of schedule.
