Democrats in New Jersey are in full-blown panic mode as their once-commanding early voting advantage has virtually evaporated. In 2021, Democrats enjoyed a 26,700-vote lead after the first day of early in-person voting. This year? That lead has shrunk to less than 2,500 — a collapse that has party strategists scrambling and Republicans fired up.
Even more encouraging for the GOP, overall early voting turnout — which includes both mail-in and in-person ballots — shows Democrats at 60%, Republicans at 24%, and independents at 16%. While those numbers may still look blue on paper, it’s a dramatic improvement for Republicans compared to previous cycles and a clear indicator of growing red momentum in the Garden State.
Analysts say the surge is fueled by rising enthusiasm among conservative voters, who are energized by President Trump’s second term, disgusted by New Jersey’s high taxes and crime, and ready to challenge years of Democrat dominance.
Jack Ciattarelli, who came within three points of unseating Governor Phil Murphy in 2021 — outperforming polls by five points — is now leading the charge. Polling aggregates show Democrat Mikie Sherrill clinging to a razor-thin 4-point lead, signaling that even in deep-blue New Jersey, the political ground is shifting.
Still, establishment analysts like Micah Rasmussen of Rider University’s Rebovich Institute remain pessimistic about GOP prospects, arguing, “If Republicans cannot gain traction on Democrats, they’ll go into Election Day with a 275,000-vote hole.” But Rasmussen’s gloomy take ignores the obvious: Democrats are losing ground fast, and Republicans are gaining where it matters — in energy, turnout, and voter confidence.
Adding fuel to that narrative, Democrat defections are accelerating across the state. One of the most striking examples came from Alpine, where Councilman David Kupferschmid abandoned the Democratic Party after decades and officially registered as a Republican. His switch makes him the first GOP member on the Alpine Council in more than 20 years — and his statement was a political gut punch to his former party.
“The Democrat Party does not represent us anymore,” Kupferschmid declared. “With my switch, I will now be the first Republican on the council in more than 20 years. I hope this is the beginning of a resurgence for the Republican Party in Alpine where alternate voices are much needed.”
Kupferschmid blasted Democrats for turning their backs on common sense, slamming their obsession with the far-left agenda. “While Mikie Sherrill refuses to denounce radicals in her party, Jack Ciattarelli has been appealing to all sides with a message of sanity — tackling overdevelopment, cleaning up crime, and making our state affordable again.”
In announcing his official party switch, Kupferschmid threw his full support behind Ciattarelli: “I’m proud to stand with our Republican leaders and our great gubernatorial candidate Jack Ciattarelli, as we all work to make our state more affordable and safe for all residents.”
The momentum is unmistakable. From crumbling Democrat turnout advantages to defectors joining the GOP, New Jersey may finally be waking up from decades of one-party rule. With President Trump back in the White House and Republicans nationwide energized, the Garden State could soon see the political shake-up Democrats have long feared — and conservatives have long awaited.
