New Jersey politics may be about to deliver a major upset. Once thought to be safe Democratic territory, the Garden State’s 2025 gubernatorial race has suddenly turned into a nail-biter, with Republican businessman Jack Ciattarelli neck and neck with Democrat Rep. Mikie Sherrill.
For decades, Democrats have had a stranglehold on New Jersey, using high taxes, bloated government, and soft-on-crime policies to keep their machine humming. But the tide is turning—and Ciattarelli, a pro-Trump Republican with a strong record in business and public service, is well-positioned to finally crack the blue wall.
Ciattarelli, a former state assemblyman, is no stranger to this fight. He nearly pulled off a massive upset in 2021, falling just three points short of ousting Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy. Now, with Murphy gone and Sherrill trying to hang onto Democratic power, Ciattarelli is in striking distance.
A new Emerson College/PIX11/The Hill poll shows the race dead even—Ciattarelli and Sherrill each pulling 43% support, with 14% of voters still undecided. That undecided block could be the deciding factor—and recent political shifts suggest they’re leaning Republican. In fact, the numbers mirror New Jersey’s surprising move toward Trump in 2024, when the former president came within just a few points of winning the state outright.
President Trump himself weighed in on Truth Social, celebrating the momentum behind Ciattarelli. “Wow!!! A just out poll has Jack Ciattarelli essentially beating close to incompetent Mikie Sherrill in the race for Governor of New Jersey,” Trump wrote.
He went on to outline the stark contrast between the candidates: “Jack is tough on crime and cutting taxes, two things that people really demand today. He will be a GREAT Governor, and Sherrill wants Open Borders (again!), men playing in Women’s Sports, Transgender for everyone, and all of the things that almost DESTROYED America.”
Trump also pointed out Sherrill’s troubling alliances, tying her to far-left New York City mayoral hopeful Zohran Mamdani, a self-described socialist who many warn would devastate America’s largest city. “She is a big supporter of the perhaps future Communist Mayor of New York City! We need Jack in New Jersey!!!” Trump declared.
And it’s not just Republicans who see the writing on the wall. Even Democrats are starting to abandon ship. Earlier this month, Garfield Mayor Everett E. Garnto, Jr. announced he was leaving the Democratic Party to join the GOP and support Ciattarelli.
“For the last seven and a half years, Phil Murphy’s policies have left us with sky-high taxes, soaring electric bills, and less safe communities,” Garnto said. “New Jerseyans deserve better. Jack Ciattarelli is ready to turn this state around.”
If Ciattarelli pulls this off, it would be more than just a Republican win in a deep-blue state—it would be a political earthquake, sending shockwaves through the Democratic establishment ahead of the 2026 midterms.
With the race tied and momentum swinging red, New Jersey voters now have a clear choice: double down on failed progressive policies under Sherrill—or embrace Jack Ciattarelli’s commonsense, America First agenda to finally put New Jersey back on track.
